President Chen’s referendum elevates tension with Washington and Beijing.

With less than five months left in his presidency, Chen Shui-bian is being visibly isolated as he continues to push the envelope of Taiwan independence in a bid to gain votes for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Taiwanese citizens head to the polls for a legislative election January 12, followed by a presidential election March 22.

The United States, the guarantor of Taiwan's security, has been unhappy with Chen's provocative pushing of his pro-independence agenda, which will culminate in a referendum in March that coincides with the presidential vote. The referendum, on the island's application to join the United Nations and to change its official name from the Republic of China to Taiwan, is a move viewed by both Beijing and Washington as an attempt to change the cross–Taiwan Strait status quo.

Raymond Burghardt, chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan, the quasi-official U.S. body that handles relations with Taiwan, last month reiterated Washington's opposition to the referendum, which, he said, had already raised tensions across the strait.

In addition, he said, the referendum will deprive whoever is elected president of a free hand to manage relations with China. Frank Hsieh, the actual DPP candidate, is running against Ma Ying-jeou of the opposition Kuomintang.

"The new president, whether it's Hsieh or Ma”¦he deserves to be his own man," Burghardt said. "He shouldn't be boxed in by statements made now."

And yet that is exactly what Chen is trying to do: ensure that whoever succeeds him will not be able to undo what he has put in place.

That is why, among other things, he decided to close down the mausoleums of the late presidents Chiang Kai-shek and Chiang Ching-kuo on January 1, when, as the Georgia Straight went to press, military guards were expected to be removed.

That was just 11 days before the crucial parliamentary elections. Both Chiangs were leaders of the KMT, and the senior Chiang, in particular, is vilified as a dictator who engaged in "white terror" against opponents.

A DPP-initiated referendum is also scheduled for January 12, calling on the KMT to turn over "illicit party assets", another move to motivate the DPP base to come out and vote.

Hsieh, who has been in the president's shadow and found it difficult to conduct his own campaign, immediately welcomed Burghardt's remarks, calling them heartening. He said the U.S. is a good friend of Taiwan's and "one should listen to the advice of a good friend."

Meanwhile, former president Lee Teng-hui, who supported Chen's reelection in 2004, publicly said that he had made a mistake and urged Taiwanese to oust the ruling DPP from office.

"We chose the wrong person, and we have been punished," Lee reportedly told the United Daily News, as quoted in the Taipei Times. "I have never seen any other country like Taiwan where more than 10 ministers have been arrested on charges of graft in less than eight years." In addition, Chen's wife, Wu Shu-chen, is being charged with illegally claiming about US$458,000 in personal expenses from state funds, which were used to buy diamond rings and other luxury items.

Lee, who served as president from 1988 to 2000, warned in the news article that if Taiwanese keep voting for the DPP, the country will be "finished".

As a result of Chen's repeated rejection of U.S. president George W. Bush's pleas not to engage in provocative behaviour, the Bush administration, which entered office as a big booster of Taiwan, is now one of its most severe critics.

Perhaps reflecting the U.S. government's attitude, a recent survey by Zogby International commissioned by the Committee of 100–a nonpartisan, nonprofit organization made up of Chinese-American leaders and professionals–found that only 32 percent of American citizens said that the U.S. military should protect Taiwan if China starts an armed conflict.

In fact, a majority of respondents said they would oppose U.S. intervention in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait if it were triggered by a formal declaration of independence by Taiwan, according to the survey.

Although Chen appears to have been deserted by friends and allies both in Taiwan and abroad, no one is counting him out. After all, in 2004 he appeared headed for certain defeat until a mysterious shooting incident that gave him a minor wound the night before the election brought him a flurry of sympathy votes, enabling him to squeak through.

President Chen is a master politician, possibly with more tricks up his sleeve.