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Bush's offshore-drilling gambit will send ripples into Canada

U.S. President George W. Bush’s call on Congress to lift a 27-year ban on offshore drilling in U.S. coastal waters is a geopolitical shot that will resound worldwide.

BBC News quote Bush calling existing restrictions on offshore drilling “outdated and counter-productive”.

Since 1981, a congressional moratorium has prohibited oil and gas drilling along the east and west coasts of the U.S. and in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, an area accounting for some 80 percent of the U.S.’s Outer Continental Shelf. This was done to protect tourism and prevent oil spills from wrecking beach areas.

Both Bush and Republican presumptive presidential candidate John McCain are aligning their position, arguing that the move to lift the moratorium will lessen dependence on foreign oil imports.

According to U.S. interior documents cited by the BBC, there are an estimated 18 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the area, and the U.S. annual consumption is around 7.6 billion barrels, over 33 percent of that offshore capacity.

Sen. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic party presidential nominee, is opposed to the lifting of the moratorium.

The implications for Canada are profound. The U.S. oil equation does not look to addressing the soaring annual consumption across North America. (Worldwide daily consumption sits at around 80 million barrels of conventional oil.) With no reduction in consumption, loss of oil imports or soaring prices put pressure on a source of local substitution.

Currently, there is a moratorium on oil and gas exploration off the coast of B.C., which the federal government has the power to overturn.

On Straight.com last week, California-based energy analyst Julian Darley was quoted as saying B.C. Hydro should not be looking to gas-fired power plants in its long-term energy strategy.

However, B.C. Hydro spokesperson Susan Danard told the Straight that no new electricity will be generated in natural-gas-fired plants in B.C. “In no way is B.C. Hydro even contemplating any new gas-fired generation,” she claimed. “That’s not us.”

Currently Prime Minister Stephen Harper has remained quiet on the issue of lifting B.C.’s moratorium. Bush’s gambit ahead of the November U.S. election could tip Harper’s hand. However, the Conservatives are only in a minority government, and Liberal Opposition Leader Stéphane Dion is set to unveil his carbon tax plan in the coming days.

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