Gordon Wilson says the B.C. Liberals won’t be viable if they lose next year.

When Gordon Wilson took over the B.C. Liberal party, it was almost dormant. Today, musing about the fortunes of his old party—which was eventually taken away from him by someone named Gordon Campbell—Wilson says it looks like it's moving back to the moribund state in which he found it about 25 years ago.

With poll after poll showing the B.C. Liberals in decline, Wilson doubts the party will remain viable if it loses next year's general election. He expects a new centre-right coalition to emerge, much like the conservative-leaning Social Credit during the early 1950s.

“It will be the end of the B.C. Liberal brand…through this coalition,” Wilson told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview. “One has to always remember—and believe me, I learned it the hard way—the forces that are non–New Democrat, that have influence and who have money and are able to affect the outcome of an election, those forces want one party…that they can vote for. And they'll choose one. And they'll literally strangle the other one financially to the point that you cannot possibly compete.”

In the meantime, current B.C. Liberal premier Christy Clark will become more vulnerable to federal Conservative elements in the party because this known federal Liberal is no longer regarded by voters as their top choice for premier.

Wilson anticipates “an increasing number of voices internally that are going to be pointing fingers and saying, ‘She can't win, and therefore there's time before the next election to go forward and seek a new leader' ”.

However, Wilson doesn't believe that Clark will necessarily get the boot. He said it's more likely that members will think they can't win with Clark and therefore stay away from the next election.

“So you're going to see a number of Liberal MLAs who will simply decide that they've had enough and that they're going to step out,” Wilson said. “And I think that that's more likely than you will have them be able to turf her out. That's not to say there won't be people who would like to see that happen. But if that were to happen, those forces have to organize pretty quickly.”

According to numbers released by Forum Research Inc. on January 24, B.C. Liberals are heading to a huge electoral defeat.

Based on current voting intentions, the Toronto polling firm projected the B.C. NDP winning 57 out of the 85 seats in the legislative assembly. The Liberals will take 20 seats; the B.C. Conservatives will get seven; and independent MLA Vicki Huntington will retain her Delta South seat.

Times may be rough for the B.C. Liberals, but Victoria-based political observer Norman Ruff doesn't foresee a mutiny against Clark.

“I don't expect a palace coup, but there could well be some palace exits,” Ruff told the Straight by phone.

What's obvious to Ruff is that prominent B.C. Liberals defeated by Clark for the party's leadership post have mostly taken a back seat. He cites, in particular, Finance Minister Kevin Falcon, Health Minister Mike de Jong, and Education Minister George Abbott. “One doesn't see them as part of the cheering section behind the premier,” Ruff said.

Although many may consider the B.C. Liberals goners already, Wilson said Clark still has a fighting chance. The retired politician also noted with some amusement that he didn't think the Liberal leader was going to listen to his opinions, given that he eventually joined the other side, becoming a cabinet minister in Glen Clark's NDP government.

“But if I were in her shoes,” Wilson said, “I think what I would do now is I would bring my cabinet together and I would say, ‘Look, I want signed on the bottom line how many of you are going to run again and how many of you aren't. And those of you who are not committed to run with me and back me, you're out.' ”