First, let me start by saying that I’m no optimist. I’d say realist. My wife might say pessimist. I think I’ve just spent the last 10 years in a constant state of worry because that’s what you generally do when you own a small business.

I should clarify that most of the time I worry for no reason—just for the sake of worrying, I guess. Steel & Oak—the New Westminster brewery I co-founded—has had more good times than bad. We’ve been able to grow a business from nothing into something meaningful. 

Around a million glasses of our beer are enjoyed each year. We have 22 amazing staff members who help the brewery tick. On the outside, we are successful. On the inside, though, we’re like any other small business in a highly competitive market: trying the best we can to stay creative, stay positive, stay relevant, and stay afloat.

There are many challenges in the craft brewing industry at the moment. The cost of operating a brewery has skyrocketed, but our customer base has not. There are more than 230 of us in BC, competing for a finite amount of liquor store shelves and tap lines. The prediction is that over 20 per cent of us will go under before the end of 2025. I’m not going to argue with that (mostly because I think 20 per cent is about right).

Market saturation and customers cutting down on alcohol are reasons that get thrown around a lot for the current state of the industry—and while these definitely play a factor, the big thing that’s likely going to get many breweries out there is the sheer cost to own one.

Breweries are expensive. Yet most of them are started by a couple people—present company included—who leverage and risk everything they have because they love the craft of making beer and want to improve the community they’re in.

Many of us borrow small amounts of money from family or friends, where the risk of not paying them back is no longer getting invited to parties. But the majority of the one to two million dollars needed to fund a brewery comes from the bank, where the risk of not repaying is bankruptcy (bank parties suck anyways). Those outstanding bank loans, whether they be to start a brewery or grow one, have likely renewed during this recent increase in interest rates. And while the cost to service that debt is now a lot higher, for most, the increase in beer sales isn’t there to cover it.

Compound this with the possibility of breweries taking on even more debt to get themselves out of the previous debt and an increase in every single cost across the board from raw ingredients, to packaging, to distribution, to of course rent, and you have a super scary situation for many.

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But that’s business, my friends: a risk. And at the end of the day, many businesses fail.

Most products that enjoy the wild trajectory that craft beer did end up with a market correction once the category meets demand. But it’s hard for me to say it’s just a market correction, because a lot of those beer people are friends of mine. They are important members of their communities. They care about beer and the people who enjoy it. They are good people. I want them to make it. Some will.

My prediction for the future isn’t anything revolutionary. People are drinking less, and there are more breweries than the population can support. So, I feel like our perspective on what makes a craft brewery successful needs to change from volume sold to community impact.

Getting people together in a space that’s important to the neighbourhood to enjoy a beer you lovingly created—that’s the good stuff. There is nothing better than watching old friends get together, or new friends meet for the first time, and enjoy something that you put so much hard work into.

If you think about what made you love craft beer, local spirits, or BC wine in the first place, it was likely being able to connect with those who make it. To feel the passion behind it. To learn that the reason why it tastes better than mass-produced versions is because actual people were involved. That’s why we did it, too: to connect with you. To let you know why we’re so proud. 

So, this isn’t the end of craft beer. Folks have been enjoying beer for over 6,000 years and will continue to do so. But things change.

Craft beer is made by real humans who live and play in your neighbourhood and are important stalwarts in your community; at the end of the day, though, some won’t last, and unfortunately that’s just business.

So if you love your local craft brewery, pop in. Take your friends. Tell your inner circle about it. Give the spot a great review on Google. Post about it on social media while you’re there. Spread the word about why you love your brewery. Have your meetings there. We all carry a great selection of non-alcoholic beverages now, so even if you don’t feel like a beer but need space, use ours!

In the end, those who do make it through will be more robust, resilient, and all around better breweries because of these challenges. This in turn will make your experience better, too. As my friend Adam Henderson of Superflux says: “Nowadays, breweries need to come correct.” The majority of brewery doors you’ll walk through a couple years from now will have done just that.