Every January 1, it's a lot of fun dishing out some predictions for the year to come.

Sometimes, I hit the mark.

On January 1, 2017, I forecast that John Horgan would become B.C.'s premier and that Adrian Dix, David Eby, and George Heyman would become cabinet ministers. But I failed spectacularly when I guessed that Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte would be assassinated.

On January 1, 2018, I correctly surmised that the NPA would not win control over the park board, school board, or council but that Jean Swanson would be elected to council. I got lucky with my guess that Andrew Wilkinson would win the B.C. Liberal leadership race.

But I missed the bus by a mile by anticipating that B.C. voters would approve proportional representation in a referendum.

Last year, I correctly guessed that Justin Trudeau's Liberals would be elected in a minority government; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh would win the Burnaby South by-election; and there would be no provincial election.

Let's just forget about those predictions about former NDP MP Svend Robinson returning to Parliament and the Liberals retaining all four of their Vancouver seats.

Like everyone else, I didn't anticipate that Jody Wilson-Raybould would blow the whistle on Trudeau's meddling in the SNC-Lavalin prosecution, get tossed out of caucus, and then be reelected as an independent in Vancouver Granville.

But hey, the three other Vancouver Liberal incumbents—Harjit Sajjan, Hedy Fry, and Joyce Murray—were all handily reelected.

It's a reminder of the old saying that predicting the future is easy. The hard part is getting it right.

So what's in store for 2020? 

We've just come off a record-breaking year on Wall Street, with 27 of the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Global Index posting gains this year.

Apple registered the largest percentage increase, closing the year up 86.16 percent, followed by Microsoft, with a 55.26 percent gain, and JPMorgan Chase at 42.8 percent.

Apple's Tim Cook was clearly the CEO of the year, though he'll never be as famous as his predecessor, Steve Jobs.

By year-end, Apple's market capitalization was a stunning $1.3 trillion, which is close to the gross domestic product of Australia.

It's hard to imagine these gains being replicated in 2020. So I'm going to forecast a correction this year as the U.S. presidential race heats up.

And why's that? Because I'm anticipating that the Democratic primaries are going to surprise people as the perceived front runner, centrist Joe Biden, stumbles badly. More on that below.

British Columbia

Overdose deaths continue falling: As the 2019 came to a close, B.C. was on track to see a significant decline in fatal overdoses compared to the two previous years.

Still, the number of deaths is still about five times what it was on an annual basis from 2001 to 2010. And the number of 9-1-1 calls continues climbing each year for overdoses, so there's still room for tremendous improvement.

But the harm-reduction services that have been put in place are having an impact. There's still no safe illicit drug supply. And there's zero indication that Health Minister Adrian Dix or Premier John Horgan or Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will make this a priority in 2020.

That means we can expect hundreds upon hundreds of British Columbians to die needlessly in the coming year from illicit-drug overdoses. But that will still be an improvement over the 1,541 overdose deaths in 2018 and the 1,496 overdose deaths in 2017 in Canada's westernmost province.

Horgan shuffles his cabinet: The NDP government has only changed one cabinet position in 28 months, and that was when Jinny Sims resigned as minister of citizens' services in the wake of an RCMP investigation. 

Expect that to change in 2020 as Horgan recasts his cabinet with an eye on the 2021 election. In 2017, the cautious Horgan placed a premium on experience and ties to the labour movement in naming his picks.

But he's got to do something to firm up the South Asian vote in the wake of all the controversies around ride-hailing.

Plus, Horgan needs greater cabinet representation from the outer suburbs if he wants to retain his seats or even make gains in Surrey and the region's northeast sector.

That's why I'm betting that Delta North MLA Ravi Kahlon and possibly Maple Ridge–Mission MLA Bob D'Eith will get a promotion.

The looming election in 2021 could also see North Vancouver MLA Bowinn Ma enter cabinet. It's conceivable that Surrey–Green Timbers MLA Rachna Singh could get in if Sims isn't cleared by the Mounties.

Some NDP veterans like Labour Minister Harry Bains and Poverty Reduction Minister Shane Simpson might not seek reelection in 2021, which will give Horgan an excuse to shuffle the deck. Another possibility for cabinet is Surrey-Fleetwood MLA Jagrup Brar, who will be seeking reelection in a swing seat.

B.C. Greens struggle: It's less than two years from the next provincial election and the third party in the legislature is going to need a new leader. As much as the former leader, Andrew Weaver, wants a candidate from the Lower Mainland, he's going to have trouble finding anyone.

That's because any Green in the Lower Mainland knows that he or she will have a brutal time getting elected. My guess is that Vancouver councillor Pete Fry won't enter the race. He's already lost enough elections and he's likely to enjoy a long career as a municipal politician now that he's finally on council.

Another potential leader might be Michael Wolfe, a teacher and member of Richmond city council. But is Wolfe going to want to take on a challenge of this magnitude given how busy he is already? I'm guessing not.

Former New Westminster school board chair Jonina Campbell was one of Weaver's favourite Green candidates in 2017, but she lost and now she's out of elected politics. Coquitlam's Nicola Spurling is a possibility but she came well back in the pack in the 2018 council election.

In the end, the next B.C. Green leader is likely to be from Vancouver Island, which probably won't help the party expand its appeal to the mainland of B.C.

Canada

No election: The Bloc Québécois, in particular, has no interest in taking down the Liberals. And the Conservatives also won't want an election until their leadership race is over.

Besides that, MPs need six years of service to qualify for a pension. Therefore, the Class of 2015—including dozens of newly elected Liberals but also some Conservatives and New Democrats—won't want to go to the polls before they pass that six-year threshold. So Trudeau will not have to worry about his minority Liberal government losing a confidence vote.

Pierre Poilievre becomes Leader of the Opposition: The Conservatives still haven't decided when their leadership race will be decided. But I'm guessing that when it gets underway, the candidate to watch will be Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre.

The pundits often say that the Conservatives need a more moderate leader than the soon-to-depart Andrew Scheer. That's why former cabinet ministers Rona Ambrose and Peter MacKay are often touted as strong candidates, should they enter the race.

But the reality is that Ambrose and MacKay are still not strong enough French speakers to win over voters in Quebec. And they're not as conservative as Poilievre, who will appeal more to a party that's still dominated by hard right wingers. He's also a political gladiator who's strong with a sound bite for the media. That's why I'm predicting he'll be the next federal Conservative leader.

David Merner becomes Green leader: There are currently only two declared candidates for the leadership of the Green Party of Canada. Merner, the former Green candidate in Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, is up against Julie Tremblay-Cloutier, the former Green candidate in Mirabel. 

Other potential candidates include Quebec Green leader Alex Tyrrell, who's far more left wing than the other two, and former Green candidates Dimitri Lascaris and Luc Jole-Couer.

So why will Merner win? The former justice department lawyer is popular with many B.C. members of the party, plus he's fluently bilingual and he has the full confidence of the long-time leader, Elizabeth May. Merner is a former president of the Liberal Party of Canada in B.C., but he's criticized the Trudeau Liberals for "incrementalism" in responding to the climate and overdose crises.

His ideological disposition—not too left, not too right—is in keeping with many people who vote Green across Canada. 

We'll find out if I'm right when the Greens choose their next leader on October 4. 

U.S. presidential election

Right now, Biden is the odds-on favourite to become the Democratic Party's presidential nominee.

But I'm going to predict that he'll be "trumped" by the left within the party, which will coalesce around Vermont senator Bernie Sanders.

It will come as a shock to the mainstream media and the barons of Wall Street as they realize that an avowed 78-year-old democratic socialist is likely to scoop up the Democratic Party presidential nomination.

How will this happen?

Mayor Pete Buttigieg will do remarkably well in the Iowa caucuses, delivering an opening blow to Biden's candidacy.

The former vice president didn't help himself with the Democratic Party base when he recently revealed that he would consider choosing a Republican as his running mate. His opponents will feast on this on the campaign trail.

Meanwhile, Sanders will fare much better in Iowa than his main left-wing opponent, Massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren.

Sanders may even come second behind Buttigieg in Iowa but even if he's third after Biden and Buttigieg, the senator will win the New Hampshire primary, just like he did in 2016 over Hillary Clinton.

With Biden possibly losing the first two contests, he'll face a huge test in Nevada. Right now, he's expected to win, but if Sanders comes a strong second, it could mark the end of Warren's candidacy.

Sanders could then mop up the progressive votes as Buttigieg, Biden, and Michael Bloomberg battle it out for the centre.

And over time, it just might be enough to give Sanders the Democratic presidential nomination, especially if he scoops up more of the African American and Hispanic vote than he did in the 2016 primaries. In this regard, his press secretary, Briahna Joy Gray, will help, as will the endorsement of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

The Republicans would rejoice over a Sanders victory and think they have the presidential election in the bag.

Trump and his friends would point to Jeremy Corbyn's devastating loss in the U.K.—as would the media—and look forward to four more years in power.

That will be the conventional wisdom.

But U.S. presidential elections are not won and lost nationally. They're won and lost in about five or six states.

And elections are often a referendum on the incumbent—and in this case, Trump has sky-high negative ratings, particularly among women.

Sanders would prove to be a formidable opponent to Trump in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that the next president of the United States will be...Bernie Sanders.

The Oddsmaker website currently has Sanders at 15:1, compared to 3.5:1 for Biden and 7:1 for Buttigieg and Warren. Even Bloomberg is ahead of Sanders at 14:1.

So call me crazy but I'm betting that anxiety over the climate will propel Sanders into the White House.

Somehow, I doubt that Sanders would choose basketball star LeBron James as his running mate. But if he did, it could seal the deal for the Democrats in Ohio and Florida.

A better bet as his vice presidential candidate is California senator Kamala Harris. Even though they squabbled over health care before she dropped out of the presidential-nomination race, she would bring enough to the ticket to help Sanders defeat Trump.

Another potential Sanders running mate might be Catherine Cortez Masto, the greenish senior U.S. senator from Nevada. Cortez Masto's Mexican heritage would help consolidate the Hispanic vote.

The die-hard Sanders fans would have a problem with a more conventional Democrat like Harris or Cortez Masto as his running mate. But it would calm down the media.

Harris, in particular, would likely help mobilize centrist voters and women to get out and vote for the Democrats.

Plus, Sanders could play up her prosecutions of corporations as California's attorney general in defending this choice to his base.