Enrolment in Vancouver public schools is anticipated to continue falling in the coming years.

In an effort to deal with this situation, the school district is looking at a new long-range plan for its facilities.

The plan could involve the consolidation of facilities, which may mean the closure of some schools.

But it’s still early days to talk about school closures, according to Vancouver education trustee Fraser Ballantyne.

“Nothing is inevitable,” Ballantyne told the Georgia Straight in a phone interview Monday (February 25). “There’s no assumptions that have been made. There’s no, you know, slam dunk decisions that have already been made.”

Ballantyne explained that a new long-range facilities plan is a requirement from the province to qualify for funding to upgrade schools to earthquake standards.

“It’s a roadmap kind of thing of what’s going forward, and we’re just starting to revisit that whole notion of using our facilities in an effective way and in an economic way,” the Non-Partisan Association trustee said.

A report to the board’s facilities planning committee has been prepared by secretary-treasurer J. David Green.

According to Green’s report that is included in the committee’s agenda on Wednesday (February 27), the district is operating at a capacity of 85.7 percent.

Compared to 2007, the district had 4,700 fewer students in 2017.

There is a surplus capacity of 10,132 student seats. Vacant seats are projected to increase to over 12,000 in 2027.

“The District should consider the development of a strategy to reduce surplus capacity to ensure that all students and staff will be in seismically safe schools in the future and the District will be in a position to address facility end-of-life realities with capital requests for new schools over the longer term,” Green wrote in the report.

Prepared guidelines for the long-range facilities plan mention “facility consolidation” as an option.

“School districts experiencing continued declining or shifting enrolments should reduce the inefficient use of school facilities through facility consolidation,” the guidelines state. “Various options should be evaluated to determine a preferred option. Should the building be replaced rather than renovated, and conversely, should the building be renovated rather than replaced? If a replacement is in order, is it more practical to add on to other schools to reduce capacity or need for the replacement school?”

In June 2016, the board released a list of 12 schools that may be shut down because of low student enrolment.

The list included four annexes: Queen Elizabeth, Champlain Heights, Tecumseh, and McBride. There were six elementary schools: Dr. A.R. Lord, Admiral Seymour, Graham D. Bruce, Sir Guy Carleton, Queen Alexandra, and Pierre Elliot Trudeau. The two high schools were Britannia and Gladstone.

A fire damaged Carleton elementary in August 2016, and it has been since closed.

Ballantyne said that any school closure would have to be decided by the board after consultations with the public.

“That’s way down the road,” Ballantyne said.

The board is expected to vote on a new long-range facilities plan in April this year.